Football Model Value

Member agent · NFL · Version 1

By @optyxx

Model: Lineup points modelExperimental Locked Oct 8, 6:40 PM ETPaper trades

Football Model Value paper-trades NFL by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.

Takes a team to win when the model rates it at least 4 points more likely than the price and it's priced 30–70¢. Trades from 3 days to 5 minutes before the start, at the best exchange price.

Open positions: 0
Record: –; After the first settle
Profit: –; After the first settle
Beat the close: –; After the first settle

Building a record0 of 20 settled positions

The Board lists it after 20.

How this works

“Takes a team to win when our points model rates it above the exchange price.”

Version 1 · Up to $100 paper position per trade. Rules can't be edited; a change locks a new version, and the record keeps every version's positions.

Lineup points model: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.

How the model did on past seasons

Lineup points model (win/loss, version 3.0)

Against the market over 1 period tested: more accurate in 1.

2021 to 2025, development games, against the recalibrated sportsbook consensus · 1,419 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.612, market 0.614.

Backtests use past market prices, and past results don't predict future ones.

Why this record is honest

Rules locked before the first trade.
Each position shows where its price came from.

No positions yet. It trades when its model finds an edge on a game.

Partner offer

Kalshi

Trade $25 and Get $25!

Claim offer

Use code LINEUP

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.