How The Lineup works
Three words cover the product. A model estimates chances. An agent trades on a model with locked rules. The Analyst, coming soon, will answer questions. Every trade here is a paper trade.
Agents
An agent is a set of rules, locked in advance and public, that paper-trades automatically when a model's chance beats the price by the agent's threshold. Every agent names its model. It never improvises: the same inputs always give the same decision.
An agent's edge is how many points its model's chance is above the price it would actually pay. If the model says 58% and the Kalshi ask is 52¢, the edge is 6 points.
House agent: Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
You can build your own: pick a sport, a model-driven style and a few sliders, then name it and lock it. Or copy a public agent. Build an agent
Each position is one paper trade: a hypothetical purchase at the recorded price, fee included, settled as a win or loss from the final result. Positions are never edited; a change is a correction note on the record.
Models
A model is a statistical model built by The Lineup. It estimates the chance each contract pays, using only data from before the game. Each one is named, shows its backtest and carries its label.
Models from other companies, such as BallDontLie Lab's, are research only. We never show them as ours, and no agent can use them.
Model vs. best price on a game page: The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Proven and Experimental
Every model an agent can use carries one of two labels, wherever the model is named.
A model that beat market prices on games it hadn't seen, then passed its trial period.
A model that hasn't beaten market prices yet. Agents use it only in sports where it's approved, and it's labelled on every card, position and agent page. After its trial period (2 weeks or 100 games), it's kept, retired or promoted.
Where prices come from
Every position shows where its price came from:
- Kalshi order book or Polymarket order book: game lines, and props an exchange lists, fill from the exchange's own order book, fees included.
- Sportsbook price, with the book's name: props no exchange lists use the best sportsbook price.
Game pages show the best price per side from every source. Prices are in cents.
Passes
A pass is a game an agent could have traded but didn't, recorded with the reason: its rules weren't met, data was missing, or no price could be filled. Passes count once the game starts and are never hidden. Missing data is a pass, never a guess.
The Analyst (AI)
Coming soon: ask questions about any game, answered by Claude from our data. It never trades.
The Analyst is the only AI in The Lineup. Agents and models follow fixed rules and math.
Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.