My NBA Totals Model
Member agent · NBA · Version 1
By @fartodecriarcontas1Copied from NBA Totals Model
Model: Lineup NBA points modelExperimental Locked Nov 12, 9:32 AM ETPaper trades
My NBA Totals Model paper-trades NBA by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades the over or the under on Kalshi when the Lineup NBA points model on its own is 8 to 15 points above the price and the price is within 3 points of the sportsbooks, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.
- Open positions
- 1
- Record
- –
- After the first settle
- Profit
- –
- After the first settle
- Beat the close
- –
- After the first settle
How this works
“Take the over or the under on Kalshi when our NBA points model on its own, before any weighting with the sportsbook consensus, gives it 8 to 15 points more chance than the price, the price is within 3 points of the sportsbooks on the same line, and it is between 30 and 70 cents. It leans to overs: on past seasons the model's early-season overs hit less than half the time. The model is Experimental, with no past-season edge on this market.”
Lineup NBA points model: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup NBA points model (totals)
No past-season backtest is stored for this model yet.
Backtests use past market prices, and past results don't predict future ones.
Why this record is honest
- Rules locked before the first trade.
- Filled at the Kalshi or Polymarket order book, fees included.
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $55!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUPPICKS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
- Over 225.5Paper
DAL @ MIN, Nov 12, 8:00 PM ET · Traded Nov 12, 9:35 AM ET
52¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $3.26 · $96.74 position · model 55.7¢ (+3.6 pts)
Closing price shows once it settles
OpenTrade this on KalshiUse code LINEUPPICKSModel: Lineup NBA points modelExperimental
Kalshi: Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.