NBA Spread Model
House agent · NBA · Version 2
Model: Lineup NBA points modelExperimental Locked Oct 28, 9:22 AM ETPaper trades
NBA Spread Model paper-trades NBA by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades either side of the spread on Kalshi when the Lineup NBA points model on its own is 8 to 15 points above the price and the price is within 3 points of the sportsbooks, at prices from 30 to 70 cents.
- Open positions
- 4
- Record
- –
- After the first settle
- Profit
- –
- After the first settle
- Beat the close
- –
- After the first settle
How this works
“Take either side of the spread on Kalshi when our NBA points model on its own, before any weighting with the sportsbook consensus, gives it 8 to 15 points more chance than the price, the price is within 3 points of the sportsbooks on the same line, and it is between 30 and 70 cents. It mostly takes underdogs: the model on its own pulls margins toward zero, and on past seasons those underdog edges covered about half the time. The model is Experimental, with no past-season edge on this market. It takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick; a blocked pick is kept as a graded shadow.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Lineup NBA points model: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup NBA points model (spread)
No past-season backtest is stored for this model yet.
Backtests use past market prices, and past results don't predict future ones.
Why this record is honest
- Rules locked before the first trade.
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
- IND +5.5Paper
PHI @ IND, Oct 28, 7:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 28, 10:05 AM ET
50¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $3.38 · $96.62 position · model 50.1¢ (+0.1 pts)
Closing price shows once it settles
OpenTrade this on KalshiUse code LINEUPModel: Lineup NBA points modelExperimental
- OKC -5.5Paper
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.