NBA Tired Legs
House agent · NBA · Version 2
Model: Lineup NBA points modelExperimental Locked Oct 28, 9:22 AM ETPaper trades
NBA Tired Legs paper-trades NBA by fixed rules. Its record can't be edited.
Trades a rested NBA team to win against an opponent on the second night of a back-to-back, when the exchange price is at or below the Lineup NBA points model, unless NBA Value already holds that team.
- Open positions
- 1
- Record
- –
- After the first settle
- Profit
- –
- After the first settle
- Beat the close
- –
- After the first settle
How this works
“Take the rested team to win when its opponent played yesterday and it didn't, as long as the exchange price is no higher than our NBA points model's number. On the moneyline that number is the sportsbook consensus with a small lean to the away team, so this trades the rest spot with a price check against the books, not a model edge. It skips a game where NBA Value already holds the same team. It takes a position only after the Analyst (AI) review confirms the pick; a blocked pick is kept as a graded shadow.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Lineup NBA points model: This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
How the model did on past seasons
Lineup NBA points model (win/loss, version 1)
Against the market over 3 periods tested: tied in 2, less accurate in 1.
This agent's rest condition isn't separately backtested; the numbers below are the model's alone.
2022-23 · 1,315 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.630, market 0.628.
2023-24 · 1,319 games
Prediction error, lower is better (log loss): model 0.583, market 0.583.
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
- CHA to winPaper
CHA @ DET, Oct 28, 7:00 PM ET · Traded Oct 28, 9:25 AM ET
28¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $4.83 · $95.17 position · model 30.6¢ (+2.6 pts)
Closing price shows once it settles
OpenTrade this on KalshiUse code LINEUPModel: Lineup NBA points modelExperimental
Kalshi: Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
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Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.