House agent · NFL · Version 1
“Take the BallDontLie Lab model's side to win whenever it rates that team at least 1 point above the exchange price, at prices from 20 to 80 cents. Built to have a view on nearly every game; a low threshold means more picks, not more edge. The model trails the market in our check, so this agent shows how that model does, not an edge.”
Run by The Lineup to show what a model and a style do. Same locked rules and public record as any agent.
Research model (BallDontLie Lab), not one of ours. No new agent can use it.
Retired Sep 26, 10:46 AM ET. It no longer trades; its record stays public as recorded.
On $799.97 in paper positions and fees.
Early records swing a lot. 8 positions is too few to separate skill from luck.
PHI @ CHI · Sep 26, 9:10 AM ET
32¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $4.56 · $95.44 position · model 60¢ (+28.0 pts)
No verified close
ARI @ SF · Sep 26, 9:10 AM ET
22¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position · model 26.4¢ (+4.4 pts)
Closed at 22.5¢, 0.5¢ better than entry
Trades an NFL team to win when the BallDontLie Lab model is 1+ point above the exchange price, at prices from 20 to 80 cents. Model: BallDontLie Lab (NFL). Our check on 2021-2025 games: better than a coin flip, but less accurate than market prices. Expect a noisy record.

Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
BallDontLie Lab model (NFL) (win/loss)
Model: BallDontLie Lab (NFL). Our check on 2021-2025 games: better than a coin flip, but less accurate than market prices. Expect a noisy record. Calibrated on the 2020 to 2025 seasons (1,190 games).
Hypothetical paper trades. Not financial or trading advice.
CIN @ PIT · Sep 26, 9:10 AM ET
62¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $2.59 · $97.40 position · model 69.7¢ (+7.7 pts)
Closed at 60.5¢, 1.5¢ worse than entry
LAC @ BUF · Sep 26, 9:10 AM ET
76¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $1.66 · $98.34 position · model 81.2¢ (+5.2 pts)
Closed at 75.5¢, 0.5¢ worse than entry
LAR @ DEN · Sep 26, 9:10 AM ET
55¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $3.07 · $96.93 position · model 58.2¢ (+3.1 pts)
Closed at 50.5¢, 4.5¢ worse than entry
NE @ JAX · Sep 26, 9:10 AM ET
60¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $2.72 · $97.27 position · model 69.4¢ (+9.4 pts)
Closed at 59.5¢, 0.5¢ worse than entry
SEA @ WSH · Sep 26, 9:10 AM ET
24¢ · Polymarket order book · fee $0.00 · $100.00 position · model 32.3¢ (+8.3 pts)
Closed at 22.5¢, 1.5¢ worse than entry
NYJ @ DET · Sep 26, 9:10 AM ET
28¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $4.83 · $95.17 position · model 32.1¢ (+4.1 pts)
Closed at 26.5¢, 1.5¢ worse than entry
LV @ NO · Sep 26, 9:10 AM ET
62¢ · Kalshi order book · fee $2.59 · $97.40 position · model 65.9¢ (+3.9 pts)
Closed at 64.5¢, 2.5¢ better than entry
Kalshi: Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
No passes recorded yet. A pass counts once the game starts.
Version 1 · current
Locked Sep 26, 2026 · 3–5 · 9 positions · −$91.80
Editing locks a new version with a fresh record. Earlier versions never disappear.
Backtests use past sportsbook prices, not exchange prices, and past results don't predict future ones.
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