Alex de Minaur vs Carlos Alcaraz, ATP Tennis
Erste Bank Open (ATP 500), final, hard court
Our model sees an edge on de Minaur to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model25.5¢ de MinaurAlcaraz 74.5¢
Best price19¢ KalshiDraftKings 80.7¢
Track who winsde Minaur 19¢Alcaraz 80.7¢
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Edges
On Kalshi and Polymarket
de Minaur to win
+6.5 pts
We give de Minaur a 26% chance to win.
Our model 25.5¢Best price 19¢ at Kalshi
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Trade this on KalshiUse code LINEUP
Kalshi: Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
How this works
The model gives de Minaur 6.5 pts more than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alcaraz to win | 74.5¢ | 80.7¢ | −6.2 pts |
| de Minaur to win | 25.5¢ | 19¢ | +6.5 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | de Minaur to win | Alcaraz to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||