Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz, ATP Tennis
Rolex Paris Masters (Masters 1000), round of 32, hard court
No edge from our model in this match.
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model16.5¢ MichelsenAlcaraz 83.5¢
Best price17¢ KalshiKalshi 84¢
Track who winsMichelsen 17¢Alcaraz 84¢
Partner offer
Kalshi
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Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
How this works
Best price on both sides: Kalshi. The model and the best price agree within a point. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alcaraz to win | 83.5¢ | 84¢ | −0.5 pts |
| Michelsen to win | 16.5¢ | 17¢ | −0.5 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Michelsen to win | Alcaraz to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||