Andrea Guerrieri vs Alex Michelsen, ATP Tennis
BNP Paribas Fortis European Open (ATP 250), round of 32, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Guerrieri to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model30.4¢ GuerrieriMichelsen 69.6¢
Best price15¢ KalshiKalshi 87¢
Track who winsGuerrieri 15¢Michelsen 87¢
Partner offer
Kalshi
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Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Edges
At sportsbooks
Sportsbook pricesGuerrieri to win
+14.5 pts
We give Guerrieri a 30% chance to win.
Our model 30.4¢Best price 15.9¢ at DraftKings
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
How this works
Best price on both sides: Kalshi. The model gives Michelsen 17.4 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michelsen to win | 69.6¢ | 87¢ | −17.4 pts |
| Guerrieri to win | 30.4¢ | 15¢ | +15.4 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Guerrieri to win | Michelsen to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||