Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen, ATP Tennis
BNP Paribas Fortis European Open (ATP 250), quarterfinal, hard court
No edge from our model in this match.
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model66.7¢ FilsMichelsen 33.3¢
Best price69¢ KalshiDraftKings 35.7¢
Track who winsFils 69¢Michelsen 35.7¢
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How this works
The model gives Michelsen 2.4 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michelsen to win | 33.3¢ | 35.7¢ | −2.4 pts |
| Fils to win | 66.7¢ | 69¢ | −2.3 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Fils to win | Michelsen to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||