Arthur Fils vs Jan-Lennard Struff, ATP Tennis
BNP Paribas Fortis European Open (ATP 250), semifinal, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Struff to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model75.2¢ FilsStruff 24.9¢
Best price82¢ KalshiDraftKings 19.5¢
Track who winsFils 82¢Struff 19.5¢
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Edges
At sportsbooks
Sportsbook pricesStruff to win
+5.4 pts
We give Struff a 25% chance to win.
Our model 24.9¢Best price 19.5¢ at DraftKings
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
How this works
The model gives Fils 6.9 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Struff to win | 24.9¢ | 19.5¢ | +5.4 pts |
| Fils to win | 75.2¢ | 82¢ | −6.8 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Fils to win | Struff to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||