Ben Shelton vs Arthur Fils, ATP Tennis
Nitto ATP Finals, rr, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Fils to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model42.8¢ SheltonFils 57.2¢
Best price60.8¢ DraftKingsDraftKings 44.1¢
Track who winsShelton 60.8¢Fils 44.1¢
Partner offer
Kalshi
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Edges
At sportsbooks
Sportsbook pricesFils to win
+13.1 pts
We give Fils a 57% chance to win.
Our model 57.2¢Best price 44.1¢ at DraftKings
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
How this works
Best price on both sides: DraftKings. The model gives Shelton 18.0 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fils to win | 57.2¢ | 44.1¢ | +13.1 pts |
| Shelton to win | 42.8¢ | 60.8¢ | −18.0 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Shelton to win | Fils to win |
|---|---|---|
| Sportsbooks | ||