Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo Berrettini, ATP Tennis
Rolex Paris Masters (Masters 1000), round of 64, hard court
No edge from our model in this match.
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model60.9¢ NakashimaBerrettini 39.1¢
Best price59¢ PolymarketFanDuel 41.7¢
Track who winsNakashima 59¢Berrettini 41.7¢
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How this works
The model gives Berrettini 2.6 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berrettini to win | 39.1¢ | 41.7¢ | −2.6 pts |
| Nakashima to win | 60.9¢ | 59¢ | +1.9 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Nakashima to win | Berrettini to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||