Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances Tiafoe, ATP Tennis
Nitto ATP Finals, rr2, hard court
No edge from our model in this match.
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model82.5¢ AlcarazTiafoe 17.5¢
Best price89.9¢ DraftKingsDraftKings 14.8¢
Track who winsAlcaraz 89.9¢Tiafoe 14.8¢
Partner offer
Kalshi
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How this works
Best price on both sides: DraftKings. The model gives Alcaraz 7.4 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tiafoe to win | 17.5¢ | 14.8¢ | +2.7 pts |
| Alcaraz to win | 82.5¢ | 89.9¢ | −7.4 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Alcaraz to win | Tiafoe to win |
|---|---|---|
| Sportsbooks | ||