Daniel Merida vs Daniil Medvedev, ATP Tennis
Erste Bank Open (ATP 500), round of 32, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Merida to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model38¢ MeridaMedvedev 62¢
Best price24.2¢ DraftKingsDraftKings 80.6¢
Track who winsMerida 24.2¢Medvedev 80.6¢
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Edges
At sportsbooks
Sportsbook pricesMerida to win
+13.8 pts
We give Merida a 38% chance to win.
Our model 38¢Best price 24.2¢ at DraftKings
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
How this works
Best price on both sides: DraftKings. The model gives Medvedev 18.6 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medvedev to win | 62¢ | 80.6¢ | −18.6 pts |
| Merida to win | 38¢ | 24.2¢ | +13.8 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Merida to win | Medvedev to win |
|---|---|---|
| Sportsbooks | ||