Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik, ATP Tennis
Almaty Open (ATP 250), semifinal, hard court
No edge from our model in this match.
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model60.9¢ MedvedevBublik 39.1¢
Best price64¢ PolymarketPolymarket 37¢
Track who winsMedvedev 64¢Bublik 37¢
Partner offer
Kalshi
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How this works
Best price on both sides: Polymarket. The model gives Medvedev 3.1 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bublik to win | 39.1¢ | 37¢ | +2.1 pts |
| Medvedev to win | 60.9¢ | 64¢ | −3.1 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Medvedev to win | Bublik to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||