Gabriel Diallo vs Rei Sakamoto, ATP Tennis
Almaty Open (ATP 250), qualifying round 2, hard court
No edge from our model in this match.
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model37.7¢ DialloSakamoto 62.3¢
Best price52¢ PolymarketKalshi 48¢
Track who winsDiallo 52¢Sakamoto 48¢
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How this works
The model gives Sakamoto 14.3 pts more than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract.
Ask the Analyst: Ask about this match: form, injuries, how the prices moved. Answered by Claude from our data. It never trades.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sakamoto to win | 62.3¢ | 48¢ | +14.3 pts |
| Diallo to win | 37.7¢ | 52¢ | −14.3 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Diallo to win | Sakamoto to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||