Jacob Fearnley vs Hugo Gaston, ATP Tennis
BNP Paribas Fortis European Open (ATP 250), round of 32, hard court
No edge from our model in this match.
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model60.4¢ FearnleyGaston 39.6¢
Best price61¢ PolymarketPolymarket 40¢
Track who winsFearnley 61¢Gaston 40¢
Partner offer
Kalshi
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How this works
Best price on both sides: Polymarket. The model and the best price agree within a point. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gaston to win | 39.6¢ | 40¢ | −0.4 pts |
| Fearnley to win | 60.4¢ | 61¢ | −0.6 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Fearnley to win | Gaston to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||