Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno Busta, ATP Tennis
Erste Bank Open (ATP 500), qualifying round 1, hard court
No edge from our model in this match.
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model42.9¢ FearnleyCarreno Busta 57.1¢
Best price61¢ KalshiKalshi 40¢
Track who winsFearnley 61¢Carreno Busta 40¢
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
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Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
How this works
Best price on both sides: Kalshi. The model gives Fearnley 18.1 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carreno Busta to win | 57.1¢ | 40¢ | +17.1 pts |
| Fearnley to win | 42.9¢ | 61¢ | −18.1 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Fearnley to win | Carreno Busta to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||