Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe, ATP Tennis
Erste Bank Open (ATP 500), round of 32, hard court
No edge from our model in this match.
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model48.8¢ MusettiTiafoe 51.2¢
Best price49¢ PolymarketPolymarket 52¢
Track who winsMusetti 49¢Tiafoe 52¢
Partner offer
Kalshi
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Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
How this works
Best price on both sides: Polymarket. The model and the best price agree within a point. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tiafoe to win | 51.2¢ | 52¢ | −0.8 pts |
| Musetti to win | 48.8¢ | 49¢ | −0.2 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Musetti to win | Tiafoe to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||