Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritz, ATP Tennis
Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes (ATP 250), final, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Musetti to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model44.8¢ MusettiFritz 55.2¢
Best price35.7¢ FanDuelPolymarket 64¢
Track who winsMusetti 35.7¢Fritz 64¢
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Edges
At sportsbooks
Sportsbook pricesMusetti to win
+9.1 pts
We give Musetti a 45% chance to win.
Our model 44.8¢Best price 35.7¢ at FanDuel
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
How this works
The model gives Musetti 9.1 pts more than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fritz to win | 55.2¢ | 64¢ | −8.8 pts |
| Musetti to win | 44.8¢ | 35.7¢ | +9.1 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Musetti to win | Fritz to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||