Lorenzo Musetti vs Toby Samuel, ATP Tennis
Bybit Stockholm Open (ATP 250), round of 16, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Samuel to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model65.6¢ MusettiSamuel 34.4¢
Best price77.8¢ DraftKingsPolymarket 23¢
Track who winsMusetti 77.8¢Samuel 23¢
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Edges
On Kalshi and Polymarket
Samuel to win
+11.4 pts
We give Samuel a 34% chance to win.
Our model 34.4¢Best price 23¢ at Polymarket
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Get Polymarket on iPhoneUse code LINEUP
Polymarket: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
How this works
The model gives Musetti 12.2 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel to win | 34.4¢ | 23¢ | +11.4 pts |
| Musetti to win | 65.6¢ | 77.8¢ | −12.1 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Musetti to win | Samuel to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||