Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley, ATP Tennis
Erste Bank Open (ATP 500), qualifying round 2, hard court
No edge from our model in this match.
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model42.1¢ SonegoFearnley 57.9¢
Best price43¢ KalshiPolymarket 57¢
Track who winsSonego 43¢Fearnley 57¢
Partner offer
Kalshi
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Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
How this works
The model and the best price agree within a point. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fearnley to win | 57.9¢ | 57¢ | +0.9 pts |
| Sonego to win | 42.1¢ | 43¢ | −0.9 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Sonego to win | Fearnley to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||