Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi, ATP Tennis
Erste Bank Open (ATP 500), round of 32, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Darderi to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model60.6¢ DarderiArnaldi 39.4¢
Best price49¢ PolymarketKalshi 51¢
Track who winsDarderi 49¢Arnaldi 51¢
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Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Edges
On Kalshi and Polymarket
Darderi to win
+11.6 pts
We give Darderi a 61% chance to win.
Our model 60.6¢Best price 49¢ at Polymarket
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
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Polymarket: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
How this works
The model gives Darderi 11.6 pts more than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arnaldi to win | 39.4¢ | 51¢ | −11.6 pts |
| Darderi to win | 60.6¢ | 49¢ | +11.6 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Darderi to win | Arnaldi to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||