Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Adrian Mannarino, ATP Tennis
Almaty Open (ATP 250), quarterfinal, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Mannarino to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model49.2¢ BasilashviliMannarino 50.8¢
Best price55¢ PolymarketDraftKings 45.7¢
Track who winsBasilashvili 55¢Mannarino 45.7¢
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Edges
At sportsbooks
Sportsbook pricesMannarino to win
+5.1 pts
We give Mannarino a 51% chance to win.
Our model 50.8¢Best price 45.7¢ at DraftKings
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
How this works
The model gives Basilashvili 5.8 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mannarino to win | 50.8¢ | 45.7¢ | +5.1 pts |
| Basilashvili to win | 49.2¢ | 55¢ | −5.8 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Basilashvili to win | Mannarino to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||