Novak Djokovic vs Jan-Lennard Struff, ATP Tennis
Swiss Indoors Basel (ATP 500), round of 16, hard court
No edge from our model in this match.
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model78.2¢ DjokovicStruff 21.8¢
Best price76¢ PolymarketKalshi 25¢
Track who winsDjokovic 76¢Struff 25¢
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How this works
The model gives Struff 3.2 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Struff to win | 21.8¢ | 25¢ | −3.2 pts |
| Djokovic to win | 78.2¢ | 76¢ | +2.2 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Djokovic to win | Struff to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||