Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Sebastian Baez, ATP Tennis
Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes (ATP 250), round of 32, hard court
No edge from our model in this match.
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model36.8¢ HerbertBaez 63.2¢
Best price55¢ PolymarketDraftKings 42.7¢
Track who winsHerbert 55¢Baez 42.7¢
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How this works
The model gives Baez 20.4 pts more than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baez to win | 63.2¢ | 42.7¢ | +20.4 pts |
| Herbert to win | 36.8¢ | 55¢ | −18.2 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Herbert to win | Baez to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||