Sebastian Baez vs Damir Dzumhur, ATP Tennis
Rolex Paris Masters (Masters 1000), qualifying round 1, hard court
No edge from our model in this match.
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model48.9¢ BaezDzumhur 51.1¢
Best price43¢ PolymarketKalshi 57¢
Track who winsBaez 43¢Dzumhur 57¢
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How this works
The model gives Baez 5.9 pts more than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dzumhur to win | 51.1¢ | 57¢ | −5.9 pts |
| Baez to win | 48.9¢ | 43¢ | +5.9 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Baez to win | Dzumhur to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||