Sebastian Baez vs Tomas Machac, ATP Tennis
Rolex Paris Masters (Masters 1000), qualifying round 2, hard court
No edge from our model in this match.
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model35.8¢ BaezMachac 64.2¢
Best price21¢ KalshiKalshi 80¢
Track who winsBaez 21¢Machac 80¢
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
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Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
How this works
Best price on both sides: Kalshi. The model gives Machac 15.8 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Machac to win | 64.2¢ | 80¢ | −15.8 pts |
| Baez to win | 35.8¢ | 21¢ | +14.8 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Baez to win | Machac to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||