Taylor Fritz vs Carlos Alcaraz, ATP Tennis
Rolex Paris Masters (Masters 1000), quarterfinal, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Alcaraz to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model22.8¢ FritzAlcaraz 77.3¢
Best price28¢ KalshiKalshi 73¢
Track who winsFritz 28¢Alcaraz 73¢
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Edges
On Kalshi and Polymarket
Alcaraz to win
+4.3 pts
We give Alcaraz a 77% chance to win.
Our model 77.3¢Best price 73¢ at Kalshi
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Trade this on KalshiUse code LINEUP
Kalshi: Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
How this works
Best price on both sides: Kalshi. The model gives Fritz 5.3 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alcaraz to win | 77.3¢ | 73¢ | +4.3 pts |
| Fritz to win | 22.8¢ | 28¢ | −5.2 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Fritz to win | Alcaraz to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||