Toby Samuel vs Zizou Bergs, ATP Tennis
BNP Paribas Fortis European Open (ATP 250), round of 32, hard court
No edge from our model in this match.
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model50.9¢ SamuelBergs 49.1¢
Best price32¢ PolymarketPolymarket 69¢
Track who winsSamuel 32¢Bergs 69¢
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How this works
Best price on both sides: Polymarket. The model gives Bergs 19.9 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bergs to win | 49.1¢ | 69¢ | −19.9 pts |
| Samuel to win | 50.9¢ | 32¢ | +18.9 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Samuel to win | Bergs to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||