Tomas Machac vs Alex de Minaur, ATP Tennis
Erste Bank Open (ATP 500), round of 32, hard court
No edge from our model in this match.
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup ATP ratings modelExperimental
Model29.1¢ Machacde Minaur 70.9¢
Best price27¢ KalshiKalshi 76¢
Track who winsMachac 27¢de Minaur 76¢
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
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Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
How this works
Best price on both sides: Kalshi. The model gives de Minaur 5.1 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup ATP ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| de Minaur to win | 70.9¢ | 76¢ | −5.1 pts |
| Machac to win | 29.1¢ | 27¢ | +2.1 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Machac to win | de Minaur to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||