UMBC at GMU, College basketball
Our model sees an edge on Under 146.5 (total).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup college basketball points modelExperimental
Model17.3¢ UMBCGMU 82.8¢
Best price5¢ PolymarketKalshi 95¢
Track who winsUMBC 5¢GMU 95¢
No agent has a position in this game yet.
Partner offer
Kalshi
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Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Edges
At sportsbooks
Sportsbook pricesUnder 146.5
+7.0 pts
We give the under a 59% chance.
Our model 59.3¢Best price 52.4¢ at Caesars
Lineup college basketball points modelExperimental
How this works
The model gives UMBC 12.3 pts more than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup college basketball points model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC to win | 17.3¢ | 5¢ | +12.3 pts |
| GMU to win | 82.8¢ | 95¢ | −12.2 pts |
| UMBC +17.5 | 68.6¢ | 52.4¢ | +16.2 pts |
| GMU -17.5 | 31.4¢ | 51.7¢ | −20.2 pts |
| UMBC +18 | 70.6¢ | 53.5¢ | +17.1 pts |
| GMU -18 | 29.4¢ | 51.2¢ | −21.8 pts |
| Over 146.5 | 40.7¢ | 52.4¢ |
