Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs: prices and model prediction

ALA

Alabama Crimson Tide

Upcoming

Sat, Oct 3

12:00 PM ET

MSST

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Who wins: model vs. best price

Lineup college football points modelExperimental

Model66.4¢ ALAMSST 33.6¢

Best price68.8¢ FanDuelBetMGM 35.1¢

The model gives ALA 2.4 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.

No agent has a position in this game yet.

Edges

Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.

No edges on this game. Our models and the market agree within 4 points.

Lineup college football points modelExperimental

This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

Lineup college football points model: probability, best price and model vs. best price per contract
Contract	Model	Best price	Model vs. best price
ALA to win	66.4¢	68.8¢	−2.4 pts
MSST to win	33.6¢	35.1¢	−1.4 pts
ALA -6	49.7¢	51.9¢	−2.2 pts
MSST +6	50.3¢	52.4¢	−2.1 pts
ALA -5.5	51¢	54.6¢	−3.6 pts
MSST +5.5	49¢	50.5¢	−1.5 pts
Over 60	51.1¢	52.4¢

Source	ALA -5.5	MSST +5.5
Sportsbooks
FanDuel	54.6¢best price	50.5¢best price