BYU Cougars at TCU Horned Frogs: prices and model prediction

BYU

BYU Cougars

Upcoming

Sat, Oct 3

7:00 PM ET

TCU

TCU Horned Frogs

Who wins: model vs. best price

Lineup college football points modelExperimental

Model68.1¢ BYUTCU 31.9¢

Best price70.2¢ BetMGMDraftKings 32.8¢

The model gives BYU 2.1 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.

No agent has a position in this game yet.

Edges

Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.

No edges on this game. Our models and the market agree within 4 points.

Lineup college football points modelExperimental

This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

Lineup college football points model: probability, best price and model vs. best price per contract
Contract	Model	Best price	Model vs. best price
BYU to win	68.1¢	70.2¢	−2.1 pts
TCU to win	31.9¢	32.8¢	−0.8 pts
BYU -6.5	50.2¢	52.2¢	−1.9 pts
TCU +6.5	49.8¢	51.2¢	−1.4 pts
Over 47.5	50.7¢	51.9¢	−1.3 pts
Under 47.5	49.4¢	51¢	−1.6 pts

The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.