California Golden Bears at UNLV Rebels: prices and model prediction

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California Golden Bears at UNLV Rebels: prices and model prediction

CAL

CAL

California Golden Bears

Upcoming

Sat, Oct 3

3:30 PM ET

at

UNLV

UNLV

UNLV Rebels

Who wins: model vs. best price

Lineup college football points modelExperimental

Model44.8¢ CALUNLV 55.2¢

Best price45.5¢ DraftKingsBetRivers 56.5¢

The model gives UNLV 1.3 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.

No agent has a position in this game yet.

Edges

Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.

No edges on this game. Our models and the market agree within 4 points.

Lineup college football points modelExperimental

This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

Our model

Lineup college football points model

ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

Lineup college football points model: probability, best price and model vs. best price per contract
Contract	Model	Best price	Model vs. best price
CAL to win	44.8¢	45.5¢	−0.7 pts
UNLV to win	55.2¢	56.5¢	−1.3 pts
CAL +2.5	49.6¢	50.5¢	−0.9 pts
UNLV -2.5	50.4¢	52.2¢	−1.7 pts
CAL +3	52.6¢	53.5¢	−0.8 pts
UNLV -3	47.4¢	51.2¢	−3.9 pts
CAL +2	48.5¢	52.4¢

Prices by source

Lowest price is best

Moneyline prices by source
Source	CAL to win	UNLV to win
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	46.5¢	58.3¢
BetRivers	48.5¢	56.5¢best price
Caesars	46.5¢	57.6¢
DraftKings	45.5¢best price	58.7¢
Fanatics	46.5¢	58.3¢
FanDuel	47.2¢	57.3¢

Exchange prices are midpoints; sportsbook prices include their margin.

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Price movement

UNLV to win

Price history for UNLV to win by source, in cents
Series	Time (ET)	Price
BetMGM	Sep 27, 3:40 PM	55.6¢
BetMGM	Sep 27, 4:45 PM	56.5¢
BetMGM	Sep 27, 8:45 PM	55.6¢
BetMGM	Sep 28, 2:55 AM	56.5¢
BetMGM	Sep 28, 9:00 AM	58.3¢
BetMGM	Sep 29, 9:25 AM	57.5¢
BetMGM	Sep 29, 1:00 PM	58.3¢
BetRivers	Sep 27, 9:35 AM	51.9¢
BetRivers	Sep 27, 3:40 PM	57.8¢
BetRivers	Sep 28, 2:55 AM	56.5¢
BetRivers	Sep 28, 11:00 AM	56.3¢
BetRivers	Sep 29, 6:20 AM	56.5¢
DraftKings	Sep 27, 12:40 PM	53.5¢
DraftKings	Sep 27, 3:40 PM	55¢
DraftKings	Sep 28, 9:00 AM	57.5¢
DraftKings	Sep 29, 7:05 PM	58.7¢
Caesars	Sep 27, 3:40 PM	53.5¢
Caesars	Sep 27, 4:45 PM	54.8¢
Caesars	Sep 28, 9:00 AM	56.5¢
Caesars	Sep 28, 10:00 AM	57.6¢

2 more lines

CAL +3 / UNLV -3

Spread, CAL +3 or UNLV -3, prices by source
Source	CAL +3	UNLV -3
Sportsbooks
Fanatics	53.5¢best price	51.2¢best price

CAL +2 / UNLV -2

Spread, CAL +2 or UNLV -2, prices by source
Source	CAL +2	UNLV -2
Sportsbooks
BetRivers	52.4¢best price	53.1¢best price

2 more lines

Total 52.5

Total 52.5, Over 52.5 or Under 52.5, prices by source
Source	Over 52.5	Under 52.5
Sportsbooks
FanDuel	54.1¢best price	51¢best price

Total 53

Total 53, Over 53 or Under 53, prices by source
Source	Over 53	Under 53
Sportsbooks
Fanatics	52.4¢best price	52.4¢best price