Marshall Thundering Herd at James Madison Dukes: prices and model prediction

MRSH

Marshall Thundering Herd

Upcoming

Sat, Oct 3

3:45 PM ET

JMU

James Madison Dukes

Who wins: model vs. best price

Lineup college football points modelExperimental

Model12¢ MRSHJMU 88¢

Best price11.1¢ BetRiversBetMGM 90.9¢

The model gives JMU 2.9 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.

No agent has a position in this game yet.

Edges

Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.

No edges on this game. Our models and the market agree within 4 points.

Lineup college football points modelExperimental

This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

Our model

Lineup college football points model

ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

Lineup college football points model: probability, best price and model vs. best price per contract
Contract	Model	Best price	Model vs. best price
MRSH to win	12¢	11.1¢	+0.9 pts
JMU to win	88¢	90.9¢	−2.9 pts
MRSH +18.5	50.2¢	52.4¢	−2.2 pts
JMU -18.5	49.8¢	51.2¢	−1.4 pts
MRSH +18	49¢	52.8¢	−3.9 pts
JMU -18	51¢	52.4¢	−1.3 pts

The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.

Moneyline prices by source
Source	MRSH to win	JMU to win
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	12.5¢	90.9¢best price
BetRivers	11.1¢best price	94.3¢
Caesars	12.5¢	92.3¢
DraftKings	12.9¢	91.3¢
Fanatics	12.5¢	91.7¢
FanDuel	11.6¢	92.9¢

Spread prices by source
Source	MRSH +18.5	JMU -18.5
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	52.4¢best price	51.9¢
Caesars	53.1¢	51.7¢
DraftKings	53.5¢	51.2¢best price
Fanatics	52.4¢

Total 55.5 prices by source
Source	Over 55.5	Under 55.5
Sportsbooks
Caesars	54.1¢	50.7¢best price
DraftKings	52.8¢	51.9¢
Fanatics	52.4¢best price	52.4¢

Price history for JMU to win by source, in cents
Series	Time (ET)	Price
BetRivers	Sep 27, 10:35 AM	87¢
BetRivers	Sep 27, 3:40 PM	89.3¢
BetRivers	Sep 27, 8:45 PM	90.1¢
BetRivers	Sep 28, 12:50 AM	90.9¢
BetRivers	Sep 28, 5:55 AM	95.2¢
BetRivers	Sep 29, 4:05 PM	94.3¢
BetRivers	Sep 29, 5:05 PM	93.5¢
BetRivers	Sep 29, 6:05 PM	94.3¢
DraftKings	Sep 27, 11:40 AM	88.9¢
DraftKings	Sep 27, 1:40 PM	90¢
DraftKings	Sep 27, 2:40 PM	90.5¢
DraftKings	Sep 27, 6:45 PM	90.9¢
DraftKings	Sep 27, 7:45 PM	90.5¢
DraftKings	Sep 27, 8:45 PM	90.9¢
DraftKings	Sep 29, 3:00 PM	91.3¢
Caesars	Sep 27, 2:40 PM	89.5¢
Caesars	Sep 27, 3:40 PM	90.5¢
Caesars	Sep 27, 6:45 PM	90.9¢
Caesars	Sep 29, 3:00 PM	92.3¢
BetMGM	Sep 27, 4:45 PM	90¢
BetMGM	Sep 27, 6:45 PM	90.9¢

FanDuel	52.4¢	52.4¢

Spread, MRSH +18 or JMU -18, prices by source
Source	MRSH +18	JMU -18
Sportsbooks
BetRivers	52.8¢best price	52.4¢best price

Sportsbooks
BetMGM	51.2¢best price	52.8¢best price
BetRivers	52.4¢	53.1¢
FanDuel	51.9¢	52.8¢

Sportsbooks

BetMGM

51.2¢

52.8¢

BetRivers

52.4¢

53.1¢

FanDuel

51.9¢

52.8¢

Edges

Our model

Lineup college football points model

Prices by source

Price movement

Agents in this game

Injuries

MRSH at JMU, College football

Edges

Our model

Lineup college football points model

Prices by source

Price movement

Agents in this game

Injuries