Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats: prices and model prediction

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Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats: prices and model prediction

PSU

PSU

Penn State Nittany Lions

Upcoming

Fri, Oct 2

8:00 PM ET

at

NU

NU

Northwestern Wildcats

Who wins: model vs. best price

Lineup college football points modelExperimental

Model55.8¢ PSUNU 44.2¢

Best price58.2¢ CaesarsDraftKings 45.5¢

The model gives PSU 2.4 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.

No agent has a position in this game yet.

Edges

Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.

No edges on this game. Our models and the market agree within 4 points.

Lineup college football points modelExperimental

This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

Our model

Lineup college football points model

ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

Lineup college football points model: probability, best price and model vs. best price per contract
Contract	Model	Best price	Model vs. best price
PSU to win	55.8¢	58.2¢	−2.4 pts
NU to win	44.2¢	45.5¢	−1.2 pts
PSU -2.5	51.3¢	53.1¢	−1.7 pts
NU +2.5	48.7¢	50¢	−1.3 pts
PSU -3	48.3¢	51.2¢	−2.9 pts
NU +3	51.7¢	53.5¢	−1.8 pts
Over 45.5	49.9¢	51.9¢

Prices by source

Lowest price is best

Moneyline prices by source
Source	PSU to win	NU to win
Sportsbooks
BetMGM	58.3¢	46.5¢
BetRivers	58.5¢	46.7¢
Caesars	58.2¢best price	45.9¢
DraftKings	58.7¢	45.5¢best price
Fanatics	58.3¢	46.5¢
FanDuel	58.3¢	46.3¢

Exchange prices are midpoints; sportsbook prices include their margin.

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Price movement

NU to win

Price history for NU to win by source, in cents
Series	Time (ET)	Price
DraftKings	Sep 26, 11:35 PM	35.7¢
DraftKings	Sep 27, 1:30 AM	37¢
DraftKings	Sep 27, 3:30 AM	39.4¢
DraftKings	Sep 27, 12:40 PM	42.4¢
DraftKings	Sep 27, 1:40 PM	43.5¢
DraftKings	Sep 27, 6:45 PM	44.6¢
DraftKings	Sep 27, 8:45 PM	46.7¢
DraftKings	Sep 28, 9:00 AM	45.5¢
DraftKings	Sep 28, 5:05 PM	46.7¢
DraftKings	Sep 28, 6:10 PM	45.5¢
BetMGM	Sep 27, 3:40 PM	44.4¢
BetMGM	Sep 27, 6:45 PM	45.5¢
BetMGM	Sep 27, 8:45 PM	46.5¢
BetMGM	Sep 27, 11:50 PM	47.6¢
BetMGM	Sep 28, 8:00 AM	46.5¢
BetMGM	Sep 28, 11:00 AM	45.5¢
BetMGM	Sep 28, 5:05 PM	46.5¢
BetMGM	Sep 29, 4:20 AM	45.5¢
BetMGM	Sep 29, 5:05 PM	46.5¢
BetRivers	Sep 27, 8:35 AM	40.3¢
BetRivers	Sep 27, 6:45 PM	44.8¢
BetRivers	Sep 27, 8:45 PM	45.9¢
BetRivers	Sep 28, 2:05 PM