Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting Illini: prices and model prediction

PUR

Purdue Boilermakers

Upcoming

Sat, Oct 3

4:15 PM ET

ILL

Illinois Fighting Illini

Who wins: model vs. best price

Lineup college football points modelExperimental

Model24.1¢ PURILL 76¢

Best price23¢ BetRiversBetMGM 79¢

The model gives ILL 3.0 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.

No agent has a position in this game yet.

Edges

Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.

No edges on this game. Our models and the market agree within 4 points.

Lineup college football points modelExperimental

This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

Lineup college football points model: probability, best price and model vs. best price per contract
Contract	Model	Best price	Model vs. best price
PUR to win	24.1¢	23¢	+1.1 pts
ILL to win	76¢	79¢	−3.0 pts
PUR +10	50¢	51.9¢	−1.9 pts
ILL -10	50¢	51.2¢	−1.2 pts
PUR +10.5	51.7¢	54.6¢	−2.9 pts
ILL -10.5	48.3¢	50.5¢	−2.2 pts
Over 61.5	49.8¢	51.9¢

Source	PUR +10.5	ILL -10.5
Sportsbooks
FanDuel	54.6¢best price	50.5¢best price