Texas State Bobcats at San Diego State Aztecs: prices and model prediction

TXST

Texas State Bobcats

Upcoming

Sat, Oct 3

10:30 PM ET

SDSU

San Diego State Aztecs

Who wins: model vs. best price

Lineup college football points modelExperimental

Model62.8¢ TXSTSDSU 37.2¢

Best price64.5¢ FanDuelBetMGM 38.5¢

The model gives TXST 1.7 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.

No agent has a position in this game yet.

Edges

Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.

No edges on this game. Our models and the market agree within 4 points.

Lineup college football points modelExperimental

This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

Lineup college football points model: probability, best price and model vs. best price per contract
Contract	Model	Best price	Model vs. best price
TXST to win	62.8¢	64.5¢	−1.7 pts
SDSU to win	37.2¢	38.5¢	−1.3 pts
TXST -4.5	49.1¢	51.2¢	−2.1 pts
SDSU +4.5	50.9¢	52.4¢	−1.5 pts
TXST -4	50.5¢	52.4¢	−1.9 pts
SDSU +4	49.5¢	52.4¢	−2.9 pts
Over 59.5	49.6¢	51.2¢

Source	TXST -4	SDSU +4
Sportsbooks
Fanatics	52.4¢best price	52.4¢best price