Utah State Aggies at Boise State Broncos: prices and model prediction

USU

Utah State Aggies

Upcoming

Sat, Oct 3

7:30 PM ET

BOIS

Boise State Broncos

Who wins: model vs. best price

Lineup college football points modelExperimental

Model9.5¢ USUBOIS 90.5¢

Best price9.1¢ BetRiversBetMGM 93.3¢

The model gives BOIS 2.8 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.

No agent has a position in this game yet.

Edges

Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.

No edges on this game. Our models and the market agree within 4 points.

Lineup college football points modelExperimental

This model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.

Lineup college football points model: probability, best price and model vs. best price per contract
Contract	Model	Best price	Model vs. best price
USU to win	9.5¢	9.1¢	+0.4 pts
BOIS to win	90.5¢	93.3¢	−2.8 pts
USU +20.5	50.1¢	52.4¢	−2.3 pts
BOIS -20.5	50¢	51.9¢	−2.0 pts
Over 51.5	49.9¢	51.7¢	−1.8 pts
Under 51.5	50.1¢	52.4¢	−2.3 pts

The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.