Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova, WTA Tennis
WTA Finals, 100, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Muchova to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup WTA ratings modelExperimental
Model57¢ SabalenkaMuchova 43¢
Best price68.3¢ DraftKingsDraftKings 36.6¢
Track who winsSabalenka 68.3¢Muchova 36.6¢
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Edges
At sportsbooks
Sportsbook pricesMuchova to win
+6.4 pts
We give Muchova a 43% chance to win.
Our model 43¢Best price 36.6¢ at DraftKings
Lineup WTA ratings modelExperimental
How this works
Best price on both sides: DraftKings. The model gives Sabalenka 11.2 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup WTA ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muchova to win | 43¢ | 36.6¢ | +6.4 pts |
| Sabalenka to win | 57¢ | 68.3¢ | −11.2 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Sabalenka to win | Muchova to win |
|---|---|---|
| Sportsbooks | ||