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Rebet
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Mertens
Elise Mertens
Fri, Oct 9
7:00 AM ET
Swiatek
Iga Swiatek
Beijing (WTA 1000), quarterfinals, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Mertens to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup WTA ratings modelExperimental
No agent has a position in this match yet.
Mertens to win
+13.0 pts
We give Mertens a 33% chance to win.
Our model 33¢Best price 20¢ at Kalshi
Lineup WTA ratings modelExperimental
Kalshi: Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
The model gives Swiatek 14.0 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Ask the Analyst: Ask about this match: form, injuries, how the prices moved. Answered by Claude from our data. It never trades.
| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swiatek to win | 67¢ | 81¢ | −14.0 pts |
| Mertens to win | 33¢ | 20¢ | +13.0 pts |
| Source | Mertens to win | Swiatek to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||
| 20¢best price |
| 82¢ |
Trade this on KalshiUse code LINEUP |
| Polymarket | 20¢ | 81¢best price |
|---|
| Sportsbooks |
|---|
| DraftKings | 21.5¢ | 83.3¢ |
|---|
| FanDuel | 22.7¢ | 81.8¢ |
|---|
Kalshi: Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Partner offer
Rebet
Get a 100% purchase match up to $100!
Terms apply. Must be of legal age. Not available in all states.
| Series | Time (ET) | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Oct 8, 7:05 AM | 20¢ |
| Kalshi | Oct 8, 7:50 AM | 19¢ |
| Kalshi | Oct 8, 8:40 AM | 20¢ |
| Kalshi | Oct 8, 9:30 AM | 19¢ |
| Kalshi | Oct 8, 9:35 AM | 20¢ |
| Polymarket | Oct 8, 7:05 AM | 20¢ |
| DraftKings | Oct 8, 7:05 AM | 21.5¢ |
| FanDuel | Oct 8, 7:05 AM | 22.7¢ |
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Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Prices from Kalshi, Polymarket and sportsbooks via our data provider. Paper trades only.