Iga Swiatek vs Maja Chwalinska, WTA Tennis
Wuhan (WTA 1000), semifinals, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Chwalinska to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup WTA ratings modelExperimental
Model69.7¢ SwiatekChwalinska 30.3¢
Best price85¢ KalshiKalshi 15¢
No agent has a position in this match yet.
Partner offer
Kalshi
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Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Edges
At sportsbooks
Sportsbook pricesChwalinska to win
+14.4 pts
We give Chwalinska a 30% chance to win.
Our model 30.3¢Best price 15.9¢ at FanDuel
Lineup WTA ratings modelExperimental
How this works
Best price on both sides: Kalshi. The model gives Chwalinska 15.3 pts more than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Ask the Analyst: Ask about this match: form, injuries, how the prices moved. Answered by Claude from our data. It never trades.
Our model
Lineup WTA ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chwalinska to win | 30.3¢ | 15¢ | +15.3 pts |
| Swiatek to win | 69.7¢ | 85¢ | −15.3 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Swiatek to win | Chwalinska to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||