Jelena Ostapenko vs Jessica Pegula, WTA Tennis
Wuhan (WTA 1000), round of 32, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Pegula to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup WTA ratings modelExperimental
Model23.9¢ OstapenkoPegula 76.1¢
Best price31¢ KalshiPolymarket 70¢
No agent has a position in this match yet.
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Edges
On Kalshi and Polymarket
Pegula to win
+6.1 pts
We give Pegula a 76% chance to win.
Our model 76.1¢Best price 70¢ at Polymarket
Lineup WTA ratings modelExperimental
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Polymarket: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
How this works
The model gives Ostapenko 7.1 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Ask the Analyst: Ask about this match: form, injuries, how the prices moved. Answered by Claude from our data. It never trades.
Our model
Lineup WTA ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pegula to win | 76.1¢ | 70¢ | +6.1 pts |
| Ostapenko to win | 23.9¢ | 31¢ | −7.1 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Ostapenko to win | Pegula to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||
