Karolina Muchova vs Diana Shnaider, WTA Tennis
Wuhan (WTA 1000), round of 16, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Muchova to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup WTA ratings modelExperimental
Model63.4¢ MuchovaShnaider 36.6¢
Best price55¢ PolymarketDraftKings 45.5¢
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Edges
On Kalshi and Polymarket
Muchova to win
+8.4 pts
We give Muchova a 63% chance to win.
Our model 63.4¢Best price 55¢ at Polymarket
Lineup WTA ratings modelExperimental
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Polymarket: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
How this works
The model gives Shnaider 8.9 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Each position's model figure is from when it opened. Our model and Edges show the latest run.
Ask the Analyst: Ask about this match: form, injuries, how the prices moved. Answered by Claude from our data. It never trades.
Our model
Lineup WTA ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shnaider to win | 36.6¢ | 45.5¢ | −8.9 pts |
| Muchova to win | 63.4¢ | 55¢ | +8.4 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Muchova to win | Shnaider to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||
