Leylah Fernandez vs Elise Mertens, WTA Tennis
Tokyo (WTA 500), round of 16, hard court
No edge from our model in this match.
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup WTA ratings modelExperimental
Model49.8¢ FernandezMertens 50.2¢
Best price48¢ KalshiKalshi 53¢
Track who winsFernandez 48¢Mertens 53¢
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
How this works
Best price on both sides: Kalshi. The model gives Mertens 2.8 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup WTA ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mertens to win | 50.2¢ | 53¢ | −2.8 pts |
| Fernandez to win | 49.8¢ | 48¢ | +1.8 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Fernandez to win | Mertens to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||