Madalena Matias vs Polona Hercog, WTA Tennis
Lisbon 125 (WTA 125), round of 32, clay court
No edge from our model in this match.
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup WTA ratings modelExperimental
Model21.1¢ MatiasHercog 79¢
Best price8.7¢ PolymarketPolymarket 97.6¢
No agent has a position in this match yet.
Partner offer
Kalshi
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How this works
Best price on both sides: Polymarket. The model gives Hercog 18.7 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract.
Ask the Analyst: Ask about this match: form, injuries, how the prices moved. Answered by Claude from our data. It never trades.
Our model
Lineup WTA ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hercog to win | 79¢ | 97.6¢ | −18.6 pts |
| Matias to win | 21.1¢ | 8.7¢ | +12.4 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Matias to win | Hercog to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||