Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula, WTA Tennis
WTA Finals, 100, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Kostyuk to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup WTA ratings modelExperimental
Model42.9¢ KostyukPegula 57.2¢
Best price37¢ PolymarketPolymarket 66¢
Track who winsKostyuk 37¢Pegula 66¢
Partner offer
Kalshi
Trade $25 and Get $25!
Claim offer
Use code LINEUP
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Edges
On Kalshi and Polymarket
Kostyuk to win
+5.9 pts
We give Kostyuk a 43% chance to win.
Our model 42.9¢Best price 37¢ at Polymarket
Lineup WTA ratings modelExperimental
Get Polymarket on iPhoneUse code LINEUP
Polymarket: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
How this works
Best price on both sides: Polymarket. The model gives Pegula 8.9 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Our model
Lineup WTA ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pegula to win | 57.2¢ | 66¢ | −8.8 pts |
| Kostyuk to win | 42.9¢ | 37¢ | +5.9 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Kostyuk to win | Pegula to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||