Mary Stoiana vs Katerina Siniakova, WTA Tennis
Osaka (WTA 250), quarterfinals, hard court
Our model sees an edge on Stoiana to win (moneyline).
Track a pickWho wins: model vs. best price
Lineup WTA ratings modelExperimental
Model45.8¢ StoianaSiniakova 54.2¢
Best price31¢ PolymarketKalshi 70¢
Track who winsStoiana 31¢Siniakova 70¢
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Edges
On Kalshi and Polymarket
Stoiana to win
+14.8 pts
We give Stoiana a 46% chance to win.
Our model 45.8¢Best price 31¢ at Polymarket
Lineup WTA ratings modelExperimental
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Polymarket: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
How this works
The model gives Siniakova 15.8 pts less than the best price. This model hasn't beaten market prices yet.
Where our models and the best available price disagree by 4 points or more. Paper trades only.
Experimental: these models haven't beaten market prices yet. They run with the owner's approval while we test them live.
The model's chance minus the best price from any source. An agent's edge uses the price it would actually pay.
Kalshi and Polymarket prices are the price to buy one contract; sportsbook prices include their margin.
Each position's model figure is from when it opened. Our model and Edges show the latest run.
Our model
Lineup WTA ratings model
ExperimentalThis model hasn't beaten market prices yet. It runs with the owner's approval while we test it live.| Contract | Model | Best price | Model vs. best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Siniakova to win | 54.2¢ | 70¢ | −15.8 pts |
| Stoiana to win | 45.8¢ | 31¢ | +14.8 pts |
Prices by source
Lowest price is best| Source | Stoiana to win | Siniakova to win |
|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | ||